Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $799,188$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{819,290.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 133.6)}}\) (asimptote \(819,290.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $82,726$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,806.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,806.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,769$ on 2020-10-07

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,549,682$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,877,651.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 146.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,877,651.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $211,801$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,104.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 86.8)}}\) (asimptote \(203,104.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,337,986$ on 2020-10-07

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $117,300$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,642.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(123,642.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,448$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,643.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,643.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,242$ on 2020-10-07

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $175,380$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138,481.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 74.5)}}\) (asimptote \(138,481.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,593$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,069.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,069.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,973$ on 2020-10-07

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,016$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,949.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 135.8)}}\) (asimptote \(81,949.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,466$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,565.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 130.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,565.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47,960$ on 2020-10-07

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,497$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,495.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 189.6)}}\) (asimptote \(114,495.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,024$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,453.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 185.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,453.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,178$ on 2020-10-07

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $116,148$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,985.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.2)}}\) (asimptote \(123,985.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,159$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,142.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 158.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,142.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,832$ on 2020-10-07

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $95,704$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,691.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,335$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,287.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 112.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,287.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,333$ on 2020-10-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 64%
Dominican Republic recovered 38%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,737$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,011.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(30,011.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $873$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{881.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 122.2)}}\) (asimptote \(881.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,221$ on 2020-10-07